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• [P58] A New Method of Fuzzy Risk in Studying Landfall Typhoon
  Author(s): Lihua Feng
  
  

  Abstract
  We can obtain a conservative risk value, a venture risk value and a maximum probability risk value. Under such an ¦Á level, three risk values can be calculated. As ¦Á adopts all values throughout the set [0, 1], it is possible to obtain a series of risk values. Therefore, the fuzzy risk can be a multi-valued risk or set-valued risk. Calculation of the fuzzy expected value of landfall typhoon risk in Zhejiang province has been performed based on the interior-outer set model. Selection of an ¦Á value depends on the confidence in different groups of people, while selection of a conservative risk value or venture risk value depends on the risk preference of these people.

  
   

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